For those thinking of Hybrids

[Russianwolf]

Decades of Cheap gas has made commuter-ing and large, inefficient vehicles possible and popular.
Unfortunately it will take years of expensive gas to affect the fleet of vehicles and housing locations we now enjoy, since these are expensive and serious purchases/committments. People on the average move every 5-10 years and buy a car every 5-10 years so - the opportunity to make peopl e move closer to work and or mass transportation hubs and to buy more fuel efficient vehicles take 5-10 years, perhaps accelerated some if the rise in gasoline prices is really large.

The proposals of the senators who want to give $100 to everyone to offset gas price increases is plumb stupid and will work in the opposite way needed.

The price of gasoline has to bear the true social costs as well as the production costs. Wars over oil, pollution costs are part of those.

Oil companies make billion-dollar investments and take high risks. Some accomodation should be made for the risks they take.

To be fair, I work for an oil exploration services company, but I'm trying not to let that color my observations above.

My 2 cents anyway.

I'd say about 75% of the people that I know who buy cars new, buy a new car every 3 years. The one that buy a car that's a couple years old hold on to them longer.

The reason I've gotten from most of them that buy new is Warranty. Most have 3y/36000m warranties and they like the comfort of having it.

[Ken Weaver]

I'd say about 75% of the people that I know who buy cars new, buy a new car every 3 years.

I drive mine till the wheels turn square.

[LCHIEN]

I'd say about 75% of the people that I know who buy cars new, buy a new car every 3 years. The one that buy a car that's a couple years old hold on to them longer.

The reason I've gotten from most of them that buy new is Warranty. Most have 3y/36000m warranties and they like the comfort of having it.

Seems rather extravagant to me.
Mine are:
8 yrs old
10 yrs old (son's vehicle)
5 yrs old

I try to buy a car that will last and take care of it.

[Russianwolf]

Well, we know I don't feel the need to buy a new car. my most recent purchase is 36 years old.

1970 Jeep J-4000 Full sized Pick-up. Don't ask what the milage is cause I don't know or care.

2003 Saturn Vue small SUV. 20mpg city 25 Highway, fits 5 of the 7 dogs at a time, purtchased used in 2005.

Monthly payments? $0.

We do occasionally buy new cars. But when we do, we plan on keeping them for the long haul. 2000 Jeep Wrangler we had until LOML wrecked it in 2004, Would have kept it forever, and will be buying another at some point. 2002 Dodge Ram we had until we had to sell because LOML wrecked the TJ and she wouldn't drive the Ram. Would have kept it and had it paid off by now too.

[Stick]

The newest road vehicle I own is a '90 F150, the rest range all the way back to '60. All bigger vehicles than the F150, with a LOT more power and weight capacity and all but one get better mileage when empty. They range from 3/4T to grain truck to dump truck to semi. The '60 Kenworth semi is the only one that does worse than the F150. I tend to keep stuff forever too. Even my Harleys. The '78 FLH I bought new, the '42 WLA I've had since '73.

Me too......monthly payments = $0. Paid cash for every vehicle I ever bought. No economy to me if I have to make a monthly payment in order to get better mileage. Ultimately I would be spending more. for example, I make a 900 mile rounder to work 3 times in two months. Say it costs me $700 in fuel to make said 3 trips. Sure I could buy a little crackerbox that would only cost $350 in fuel, but then I'd also have two monthly payments to make plus insurance for another vehicle, which combined would be double or more likely triple or quadruple the $350 it would save.

[DUD]

We got new vehicles in 2001, I have a Chrysler T&C mini van, wife has a 2001 Ford Taurus. Both paid for, I thinking about a new van, I would still like Her to buy the Ford Escape Hybrid. Bill

[Xamu]

The early adoptors will help bring down the cost just as they helped bring down the cost of my 50" TV (I sure didn't pay $20,000). As a "middle adopter" of my TV model I'm sure I helped out the late adopters.

I still think that the best short term option is the development of small, high-power diesel engines running on bio-diesel with production done at the local level instead of the national level. The cherry on top (not that I expect it would happen) would be a 20 year prohibition on taxes on bio-diesel fuel. I can dream, can't I?

The worst thing (for guess who) would be that the vehicle's drive train would have to be beefed up to handle the extra torque of diesel power and there would be fewer motor/drivetrain failures and more, older vehicles.

[D_Epler]

Well, I looked at the Hybrids myself back in late 1992...then I saw my 2003 VW Golf TDI.

'03 Golf TDI BASE MODEL - $17,450
Included power windows/locks, AC, AM/FM/CD - all I needed.

I drive an avg of 30,000 miles/year doing computer service work and don't know what hybrid can get 45mph going almost 80mph!

My '03 now has 94,000 miles on it and the only thing it's needed is glow plugs (well not really needed in FL, but...) and a few Mass-AirFlow sensors - a common issue in this car.

All in All I think it has the Best Bang for the Buck compared to the hybrids out there - less cost to operate, less to buy and the engine should be worth 300,000 miles if taken care of properly!

Dave

[scorrpio]

Hybrids will likely go up in value?

The way I see it. right now a Prius costs about $22k with gas @ $3/gal. When gas hits $4/gal the demand for Priuses will go up and the dealerships will start charging a premium. Then you'll be paying $25k. When gas hits $5/gal the premium will go up further and you'll be paying $30k (and this doesn't take normal price increases into account)

I've seen this happen with alot of cars over the years for different reasons. The demand exceeds the supply and the dealers start adding premiums to the cost. If you want the car, you pay the price, if not, someone else will.

You again assume a static market. Yes, now and then some company will make a car so popular that people line up, demand exceeds supply, and dealers charge premium. (Example: Honda Odyssey - it seems to be THE car if you want a minivan) The issue with hybrids/alt fuel cars is different - it is not some specific overpopular model, it is a new TYPE of car. Honda can crank out Odysseys only so fast, so as demand goes up, there is a shortage. If demand for hybrids goes up, every manufacturer will start offering one. (I wonder if Hummer 4 will be a hybrid, that'd be funny) I haven't been to the auto show this year, but I am certain that every car maker has a hybrid/alt fuel in the works or on the market.

[Russianwolf]

You again assume a static market. Yes, now and then some company will make a car so popular that people line up, demand exceeds supply, and dealers charge premium. (Example: Honda Odyssey - it seems to be THE car if you want a minivan) The issue with hybrids/alt fuel cars is different - it is not some specific overpopular model, it is a new TYPE of car. Honda can crank out Odysseys only so fast, so as demand goes up, there is a shortage. If demand for hybrids goes up, every manufacturer will start offering one. (I wonder if Hummer 4 will be a hybrid, that'd be funny) I haven't been to the auto show this year, but I am certain that every car maker has a hybrid/alt fuel in the works or on the market.

Okay. If we were talking about a single style car that appeals only to a small group, then I would agree. If you are in the market for a family hauler, and don't mind driving a minivan, the Odyssey might appeal to you. If you are a sportscar fan who misses the MGB of old, the Miata appealed to you. But we are talking about a type car that appeals to a wide spectrum of people due to an outside force (gas prices). Yes there may be a dozen hybrid options, but you have 3 million people looking for them as an answer right now (there are nearly 300 million people in the US right now, so I think 1% is pretty conservative). Not the 100,000 that look at the Odyssey each year.

[scorrpio]

I still believe supply will rise sufficiently to meet the demand. There might be a period of shortage, but manufacturers are more interested in the number of cars sold, not how much a given dealer profits on each sale. This period will be somewhat absorbed by the fact it's very unlikely everyone would start looking for a new gas-saving car at once.

In the end, I guess it is a case-by-case thing. If I at some point go shopping for a hybrid, and find the prices so jacked up over regular cars that it is unlikely I'll recoup that cost on gas prices and potential later car sale (which I frankly don't believe will be the case), and I need a car RIGHT THEN, I might reconsider. But given currnt trends, I believe gas prices will go up, rather than down, and resaleability will keep shifting in favor of hybrids.

Then, there's the Internet sale factor. When I was going to buy my Honda CR-V, I selected a couple random dealers in the neighborhood to do a test drive before getting quotes online. One had none on the lot, another had two not in the trim I wanted. Both gave me the old adage that car is so popular I'd be hard pressed getting it even at sticker price, and second guy tried pushing the more expensive trim on me, and since 'there were several prospective buyers for those already', he would 'give me the preference' for a grand over the MSRP. I said no thanks, went home, placed my online quotes, and got five offers for the exact trim and color I wanted - all of them at invoice price or slightly below.

If there is a true shortage due to surge of demand, I suspect it will be a spike phenomenon at most.

[Russianwolf]

out of curiousity I contact a Toyota dealership for a quote. They are charging MSRP, nothing less. I'm not used to paying MSRP for a car, I don't even usually pay invoice. I paid $100 below invoice for my Ram, and $500 below invoice for our Cherokee. And so far, they have enough to meet demand.