For those thinking of Hybrids

[Russianwolf]

Hoping to save money by going to a Hybrid car? Think it through a little more.

Right now a You can buy a Honda Accord Hybrid for $31k MSRP, A Accord EX is $23k MSRP and all you're missing is Leather seats and Traction Control (who needs it in a FWD). $8k for the Hybrid. Gas savings? Hybrid 25/34, EX 24/34??????? $8k? Good luck making that money up at the pump.

then the grandpa. The Toyota Prius is $22k MSRP and the Toyota Matrix XR 2WD is $17k MSRP. Again you get Traction control and ABS extra on the Hybrid. $5k premium. MPG? Prius 60/51 Matrix 30/36. So lets say a combined 55 and 33 respectively, a respectable difference. At $3.5/gal how long would it take to make up the $5k?

Matrix
$17000+(3500g@$3.5 = $12250) = $29250 and 3500g @ 33mpg = 115500 miles


Prius
$22000+(2100g@$3.5 = $7350) = $29350 and 2100g @ 55mpg = 115500 miles


So expect to drive around 7 years before you break even.

And that's IF supply of hybrids doesn't get short (which they expect it will) and the price differnce goes up. Good luck hybrid buyers, and wait till you have to replace those batteries..... Caching.

[jziegler]

Mike,

Nice little analysis. I never did the math myself, but always guesstimated something like that. Of course, with the tax credits available, the break even point may come a little sooner. And, right now, I wouldn't be surprised to see gas prices hit around $4/gal, at least in the peak summer travel season.

Personally, I'm glad to see Toyota, Nissan, and Honda putting out new subcompact cars that aren't junky little econoboxes. If gas prices continue to rise, I may end up trading in my 25 MPG Maxima for something a little smaller and more efficient, like one of those new compacts (Honda Fit looks best from net reading), a Mini Cooper, or a VW diesel.

Now, I just need to come up with a cost comparison between a VW Golf diesel and gas engine.

Of course, there are also possible environmental/oil dependency reasons to go hybrid.

Jim

[kmk]

There was a new clip on CNN I believe about after market battery addons for hybrids. With those, you can get 100miles/ga. If those add-ons are not too expensive, then you can break even in about 3 years.

[Russianwolf]

yeah it definitely varies from model to model. I haven't looked at the numbers on the RX300 Hybrid, but I'm betting something similar to the Accord due to the weight.

Hybrids are nice, but Supply and Demand will affect them just like anything else. The local dealers are saying the Hybrids will be wait listed in this area by June. When that happens, expect to pay more than MSRP. Anybody remember what the Miata was going for when it was supposed to be a limited production and had a waiting list? I personally know a couple that paid $30k+ for a $15k car.

The VW Deisels are about a grand premium IIRC, so you should recoup the money pretty quickly comparitively.

Just trying to remind people that hybrids don't save money in the short run. They just shift it from gas expense to car expense. We have got to find better fuels.

[kmk]

On news.com. Here is the link

http://news.com.com/Coming+soon+Cars...?tag=nefd.lede.

Its worse. The add-ons cost additional $10+.

[Ken Weaver]

Think about it another way. Your analysis is correct Mike, but the issue is Mother Earth isn't making anymore fossil fuels. Thus the analysis should include benefit factors for using electicity instead of gas in the hybrid (factors that haven't been developed yet). Another way to put it, transportation is not going to get cheaper; the earth isn't making any more oil; so what do we use in place of it?

In that perspective, a break even analysis goes only so far. The real issue ahead of us is the reality argued by some that we have reached the halfway point of fossil fuel development, that is, from this point on there will be less and less available and discovered. Its been argued that even if we drain the ANWAR of every last drop we would consume it in 5 months. For the first time we are facing real competition for fossil fuels in the market, mainly from China and India.

The costs go beyond which car to buy, but how do we replace fossil fuels with something else and how can that source be made affordable. With present technology it takes more energy to make hydrogen than hydrogen gives up when you use it. Now there's a break even analysis for you.

IMHO I think you'll see gas hit $4.50/gal this summer at least, and when the dust clears it will stay above $3 and then start the cycle over again next time there's any hiccup.

Good post Mike - makes you think.

[Russianwolf]

Ken, I totally agree. There are more factors than will never fit into a simple breakeven anal. But alot of people lately think that if they buy a Hybrid, they will magically save money. That's not the case. they will likely pay a higher car payment and less at the pump, but the net affect will likely be the same at best, and With one like the Accord, could be worse. So if they are doing it just to save money, then they need to think it through with all the facts and not just the milage numbers.

Those high MPG numbers do look tempting.

[DUD]

We have been looking at the Ford Escape SUV Hybrid, the problem is LOML wants to drive one and they don't have any in stock. For My Wifes use it would run on battery power 99% of the time. Bill

[tmaceroli]

We actually own an Escape Hybrid, which I purchased at the end of last summer. I absolutely love it. Now I did the math, and you are right. Unless the cost of gas keeps escalating, it is not a money saver. However, you do get the power of V6 out of a 4, and the car rides and handles very well. My wife drives it predominantly, and mostly around town. She only fills up about twice a month, so I guess it saves her a lot of money. And it's nice looking, IMO.

At the risk of sounding like a tree-hugging environmentalist, which I am not, I will explain ultimately why I bought it. Any product requires early adopters to make it successful. The first people to buy VCRs (not me) paid hundreds, even thousands for the first Betamax units. But people did buy, and as the demand increased, the price came down. It will be the same with Hybrids, and I think ultimately that will be good for the country. It will reduce our dependence on oil, and will drive further investment into alternate energy sources. In the end, it will benefit all of us. I took one for the team.

[JR]

...There are more factors than will ever fit into a simple breakeven anal. But alot of people lately think that if they buy a Hybrid, they will magically save money. ...

Ok, true enough. But there is one more factor which should be mentioned, the federal tax abatement for buying a hybrid.

IIRC, it's $4500 in tax credits, resulting in ~$1500 in actual tax savings, if I've figured it correctly.

There's also the question of the buyer with $22K to spend. Is it better to buy a Prius or a Camry? (I haven't looked up the actual prices of a Camry, but I think they have model at that price.)

Also, it's worth mentioning that the Accord hybrid is more powerful/faster than the Accord V6, offering a completely different reason to buy that one!

Finally, there's the question of whether the Accord Hybrid, or any of the SUV hybrids, are worth considering at all. If the objective to save fuel costs, why jack around with half-a$$ed measures with those gas guzzlers. Get a Prius or Civic where it makes a difference.

My 2c.

JR

[Ken Weaver]

I also looked at hybrids Tony when we bought our Camry. They didn't have a Prius available except for the land yacht version which I didn't want. I rationalized the Camry by thinking my entire fleet ('06 Camry, '97 Altima, '96 Nissan P/Up) will all get over 20 mpg in town and except for the truck get over 32 mpg on the hiway (truck gets 28-29). I'm blessed with a short commute (3 miles each way) so the major fuel expense is the wife running around all the time and road trips.

Even tho I can feel "good" about conserving, we really need something else. My son is a plumber and needs a full-sized p/up for his work and the cost gets passed to the customer. He doesn't have much choice.

My point earlier is that things will not get cheaper for anyone. I remember gas at $.23/gal - I have to remember, we've never seen that price since the mid-'60s. This nation is creative enough, but we will have to change or events will change it for us.

[r1968]

hybrid car advantages

There is one more big reason: In california, you can drive in commute lane with only one person in a hybrid car. If you have experienced LA or silicon valley traffic, just that is worth saving an hour each way every day

--raj

[Russianwolf]

tax credits are dollar for dollar reductions in tax due, tax deductions are reductions of income to get to taxes.

A $1000 deduction would save you? $300 based on the 30% bracket, $200 if you're in the 20%.

A $1000 credit would save you? $1000.


dug up the facts....

- the tax credit can go as high as 3400 dollars (depending on vehicle)
- you cannot lease- but must buy the vehicle new (1st owner only)
- the full tax credit applies to the first 60 thousand cars sold by a carmaker, after that the dollar amount goes down,

[Russianwolf]

There is one more big reason: In california, you can drive in commute lane with only one person in a hybrid car. If you have experienced LA or silicon valley traffic, just that is worth saving an hour each way every day

--raj

We have that in VA too. And they are considering revoking it due to too many hybrids clogging the lanes.

[dlminehart]

I saw an article recently pointing out that the hybrids are designed for short range start-and-stop driving, during which the regenerative braking can charge the batteries, and low speeds and distances mean more battery use. It turns out that, on long highway trips, the Prius gets about the same gas mileage as the much cheaper Corolla: mid- to upper-30s. Makes me feel better about my Camry.

In the longer hauls, as discussed in some other threads recently, mixing (renewable) ethanol with the (fossil) gasoline is the simplest minor improvement. Complete switch to ethanol is next, followed by biodiesel (from plant oils, especially palm oil, the plantations for which are currently replacing Borneo's forests). I suspect that biodiesel hybrids will be a big thing within a few years, and that hydrogen may not take off for decades.