Recovery at last?

[germdoc]

A few months ago I posted some job figures suggesting the recovery was beginning. Not everyone agreed. It is starting to look like business is picking up steam however:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/26/bu...my/26econ.html

I'm curious what signs of recovery there are in your area?

Around here, lots of construction--roads and bridges and also new downtown buildings, even a fair number of new houses.

The mall and local businesses seem full again, my buddies at the auto dealers tell me they are selling at a brisk pace.

Unemployment is down from a high of 8 percent in Jan.

Even my ex-wife got a job...

[cabinetman]

I watched the most recent GM ad about GM having repaid their loan 5 years early with interest. I guess that is some sort of recovery.
.

[eccentrictinkerer]

I watched the most recent GM ad about GM having repaid their loan 5 years early with interest. I guess that is some sort of recovery.
.

Not to get too political, but several news sources have reported that GM did not pay off the loan with earned income. (GM has lost money in every quarter since the bailout.)

The money came from an escrow fund created with TARP money.

In other words, GM paid off its loan with our money. And GM still owes us taxpayers $52 billion in bailout funds.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...LEFTTopOpinion

[dbhost]

Since the proposed changes in national budget and program priorities as announced in February, the economy in the Houston / Galveston Bay area has started to feel the hit of the recession a little bit harder. Businesses here are leery of doing any hiring, and construction has slowed way down. I would imagine other cities involved in human space flight would be similarly impacted.

[cgallery]

I think the economy may actually be getting worse, rather than better.

[phi1l]

I think it's pretty obvious that the economy has turned back up. But remember that jobs are the last thing to come back in a recovery. Wen jobs really start to climb, it will be just about tive for teh Fed. to start putting on some serious breaking action..

[herb fellows]

The real estate market is still pretty depressed here. You can go down a beautiful street in a great neighborhood, and all of a sudden there is a house where the windows are boarded up by the bank. The story I'm getting is that the banks are so loaded up with stuff that it will sit idle for 6-8 months before they even have a look to decide what they're going to do with it!
I think they invite trouble rather than eliminate it with this tactic. It's like advertising that nobody is there, doesn't make any sense to me, in addition to making a neighborhood look bad.

[rcp612]

Not to get too political, but several news sources have reported that GM did not pay off the loan with earned income. (GM has lost money in every quarter since the bailout.)

The money came from an escrow fund created with TARP money.

In other words, GM paid off its loan with our money. And GM still owes us taxpayers $52 billion in bailout funds.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...LEFTTopOpinion

So,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, instead of robbing Peter to pay Paul,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,just rob Peter to pay Peter.

[eccentrictinkerer]

So,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, instead of robbing Peter to pay Paul,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,just rob Peter to pay Peter.

Robbing Peter to pay Paul just makes Peter sore. And there's nothing worse than a sore Peter.

[bigstick509]

Here in MI it as bad or worse then it was a year ago, still leading the nation in unemployment figures, and considering the length of this down turn I'm sure that there are a substantial number of people that are not reflected in the official unemployment figures.

[master53yoda]

You all know that I follow elliot wave structure in the markets and the economy. According to Elliot wave analysis we are to the top of the 2nd wave "correction " in a bear market. The wave pattern since last march has been an wxyxz pattern and we are within 2 weeks of the final top of the Z by all but one count scenario. The only thing that would generate a doubt in my mind that this isn't correct would be if the markets would rise above the level when Leham brothers went into bankruptcy, and stayed there. that level isn't far off but i really doubt it will cross it.

If you would be interested in looking further at Elliot waves there is a site that has all the information available. I am not involved in this site beyond being a subscriber. http://www.elliottwave.com/

I trade what the market does not what i wish it would do. Elliot waves provides the most usable method I have found and it provides stop points that substantially limit my risks in the market

[jackellis]

Not to get too political, but several news sources have reported that GM did not pay off the loan with earned income. (GM has lost money in every quarter since the bailout.)

A company can have positive cash flow with negative earnings. For example, GM might take an impairment charge against earnings for an intangible asset called Goodwill. They'd show a loss for the quarter but they still might be generating more cash than the business uses.

[vaking]

Around here, lots of construction--roads and bridges and also new downtown buildings, even a fair number of new houses.

The mall and local businesses seem full again, my buddies at the auto dealers tell me they are selling at a brisk pace.

Unemployment is down from a high of 8 percent in Jan.

Even my ex-wife got a job...

Some signs are misleading. Most roads and bridges are owned by governments, so this construction is sponsored by government spending rather than economic recovery. Generally - I believe that so far our government is going out of its way to keep people employed by borrowing and spending. Private sector economy has very few signs of recovery. It is not shrinking any more, so bleeding has stopped but patient did not get better yet.

[Alex Franke]

According to Elliot wave analysis we are to the top of the 2nd wave "correction " in a bear market.

How is this different from a couple months ago when we were also at the top of Wave 2? Is that the "wxyxz" part? Or is this the same top?

[master53yoda]

How is this different from a couple months ago when we were also at the top of Wave 2? Is that the "wxyxz" part? Or is this the same top?

Its the same top but the final z pattern has extended some, a couple months ago everything was on the near side of the top as far as indicators went. Now almost all indicators have topped. The 2 patterns with the highest probabilities would both end in the next couple weeks, one will end by the end of this week the other will have one more bounce up before it completes.
Since the note I made two months ago even though it was early, Using Elliot waves has made it possible to make better then a 50% return since January. That may sound kind of hard to believe but I still left more on the table then I made. If a person would have shorted in January and reversed the position and went long in February just those two moves would have generated a 23% return without margin using margin it would generate 46% or more. My trade timing holds a position roughly 3 to 5 days with about 10 round trip trades since January. When this wave completes I will post the pattern from Jan til now with trade points so you can see what it is I do.