Bad couple of years for energy.

[Russianwolf]

But aren't things like ethanol or biodeisel and other oil replacements/ additives more costly form an energy standpoint than oil? Maybe I'm wrong, but I heard that making ethanol is incredibly power inefficient. Also, the only reason ethanol is financially viable is because subsidies reduce the cost of corn below the cost of production. That doesn't mean it's really that cheap. It just means that the public funds it through taxes, which is given to farmers as subsidies. No subsidies, corn costs skyrocket, and corn ethanol becomes VERY expensive.

as said corn base ethanol is a bad idea.


There are other things that can be grown to produce ethanol that aren't as energy inefficient. Switchgrass as I mentioned, plant the field and let it grown. mow it and basically put it in a still (remember Ethanol is basically moonshine with an additive to make it undrinkable).

And as mentioned, right now, these things won't get traction because gas prices are too low to encourage them. What happens when gas hits $5/gal? $6/gal? At some point these become much more economically viable.

Here's an article for you. http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...anol-than-corn Mentions that switchgrass can deliver 5 times the energy that it takes to grow.

[dbhost]

Okay, I just HAVE to throw this in the mix...

Of course, powering vehicles is almost all oil. You've got some hybrids but I have not heard of any nuclear or wind powered vehicles yet.

Ever heard of a sailboat?

As far as bio fuels go, as I mentioned the production capacities aren't there yet, and efficiencies haven't been built into the system in the same manner as petrochemical fuels, but they also don't have the 150 + year development of methodologies behind them either.

And there is energy all around us that could be harnessed that hasn't even been looked at. For example land fills. As the decomposition process goes, heat is produced. If the decomposition could be contained, and the heat energy harnessed and converted to say electrcity, then we would have that as yet another source of energy.

Likewise, much of the Bio - gas that I have read about seems to be coming about from algae being the primary source, next would be switchgrass, sawgrass, and soy beans.

The one that most intrigues me is the work that Swift Enterprises is doing with bio-aviation gas.

There are others doing similar work, many concentrating on Algae and the issue of large scale algae farming, but there are others that are working with the other sources mentioned above, as well as a large number of other material as potential energy sources. Including cellulose waste (great way to get rid of agricultural waste without the field burns too!)

While the work is ongoing, it is somewhat discouraging to see the sluggish pace it is going.

[jackellis]

Alternatives are a matter of price as much as they are a matter of available technology. One of the potential drawbacks to relying solely on market forces is that markets tend to be a little myopic. Oil's not necessarily really scarce, but the stuff that's easiest and cheapest to exploit is gone, so prices have to rise in order to encourage production from shale formations (Bakken), tar sands (Alberta) and other forms that require large capital investments or have severe environmental impacts.

The difficulty with waiting for market forces to fully kick in is that you can have price dislocations (e.g. sudden increases) with unpleasant consequences.

One other thing to remember is that it's dangerous to put all of one's eggs in a single basket. Every energy source has environmental impacts (I just spent a day in Pahrump, Nevada hearing about environmental permitting). If we're wholly dependent on one or two sources, like shale gas for example, we could be faced with some difficult choices, like whether we'd rather freeze during a drilling moratorium or have people drinking contaminated water.

Finally, remember that investors are as risk-averse as the rest of us. The business case for alternatives is weakened every time we have a spike in prices followed by a trough. Cheap fuel leaves more money in our pockets for the short-term, but to the extent it discourages investment in alternatives or slows the pace of innovation, that can hurt us in the long run.

[billwmeyer]

Great discussion!

One more point on food for fuel. I have read that if the entire US corn crop was turned to ethanol it would make a small dent in our foreign dependency. That helped to make me understand the enormity of the problem. The point I wanted to add is that there is a finite amount of farm acreage. That number decreases each year as farmland is turned to housing or industrial uses. While planting switch grass looks promising, it still takes acreage away from food production.

I am not saying we need to give up on ethanol or soy diesel, we need to increase production. I am just saying that it will be part of the solution, but only a minor part, and could bring with it other problems.

In my opinion, for what it is worth, our options are to expand coal, but make it cleaner without making it prohibitively high to use, and nuclear. I think the impact from what is happening in Japan will frighten off new nuclear plants. We need more nuclear plants, and they can now be designed with the knowledge of what has happened in Japan, and more safety factors can be added.

Bill

[jackellis]

It's tough to make coal burn cleanly without spending a lot of money on pollution control equipment to take out sulfur, heavy metals and ash. Pollution control equipment also requires a fair amount of the plant's energy production, which reduces it's conversion efficiency (coal to power). Carbon is a whole other dimension. Not only is the equipment expensive and somewhat unproven, but the amount of energy required to capture carbon using existing technology is almost prohibitive. These obstacles don't mean we should not keep trying, but we need to be realistic about what's possible in the near term and how much it is likely to cost.

The economic, policy and engineering issues are interesting, but difficult and in some cases pretty divisive.