Thoughts and prayers to Poland and its people...

[Alex Franke]

What an awful day for Poland...

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/europe...ex.html?hpt=T1

[jussi]

Wow that's horrible. I'll say I silent prayer for them.

[jackellis]

Very tragic, but apparently not the airplane's fault and also apparently wholly avoidable. According to the account I read, there was thick fog and the airport did not have equipment that allows airplanes to land when the fog is really low. Controllers suggested the flight divert. Instead, the pilots made 4 attempts to land in bad conditions. All of the professional pilots I know say if you can't see the runway on the first approach, things are unlikely to get better and it's time to execute your backup plan.

Apparently they, or the president, had a disease that's known in the trade as "get-there-itis". The survival rate is pretty poor.

[RAFlorida]

Prayers for the Polish people.

Read that it could have been advoidable too. what a loss.

[LCHIEN]

What a sad event for Poland, a country that has so much traumatic history.
They lost not only their first family but many leaders of government, business and military. One of the saddest things of all is that a number of survivors of the original massacre they were going to commemorate were aboard the airplane and killed. Probably in their 80's and 90's.

And I think their government has been a good ally to the US the past few years.

[germdoc]

Very tragic, but apparently not the airplane's fault and also apparently wholly avoidable. According to the account I read, there was thick fog and the airport did not have equipment that allows airplanes to land when the fog is really low. Controllers suggested the flight divert. Instead, the pilots made 4 attempts to land in bad conditions. All of the professional pilots I know say if you can't see the runway on the first approach, things are unlikely to get better and it's time to execute your backup plan.

Apparently they, or the president, had a disease that's known in the trade as "get-there-itis". The survival rate is pretty poor.

One of my former AF colleagues had personal knowledge that this situation led to the accident that took Ron Brown's life in the 1990's.

[LCHIEN]

i read that they aborted 4 previous attempts to land before the fatal fifth attempt. I understand usually its two tries and then go somewhere else.

This article illustrates the problems for pilots of "important people":
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100412/...pilots__burden

[jackellis]

I understand usually its two tries and then go somewhere else.

I'll speculate a little. Apparently the fog was pretty thick because the local controllers had already told them to divert. With an instrument landing system, which provides very precise guidance, an airplane can safely land with conditions as bad as 1/2 mile visibility and a 200 foot cloud height. There are other instrument approach procedures, but they are less precise. The one that was likely available at that airport, which relies on low frequency (AM radio) signals, has been phased out almost entirely in the US and it was notoriously inaccurate. I still have a receiver in my airplane that I can use to listen to AM radio while flying.

The pilot was likely under some pressure to land so the president of Poland could make the ceremony. He kept trying, and probably flew below the minimum allowable altitude for that approach without having the runway in sight. It's a very dangerous maneuver in a light airplane like mine that flies the final approach at between 80 and 100 knots. the TU-154 probably had a final approach speed in the range of 140-150 knots.

Even with the big clearways that are common at air carrier airports, the pilot only had to be a hundred feet too low or a few hundred yards either side of the runway to hit a tree. He might have been able to fly through if the belly just scraped some small branches at the top. If he hit the trunk, then the tree wins.

Two tries is the absolute maximum. Unfortunately, repeated tries do nothing to improve the weather conditions. They do increase the likelihood of a bad outcome.

[LCHIEN]

I'll speculate a little. Apparently the fog was pretty thick because the local controllers had already told them to divert. With an instrument landing system, which provides very precise guidance, an airplane can safely land with conditions as bad as 1/2 mile visibility and a 200 foot cloud height. There are other instrument approach procedures, but they are less precise. The one that was likely available at that airport, which relies on low frequency (AM radio) signals, has been phased out almost entirely in the US and it was notoriously inaccurate. I still have a receiver in my airplane that I can use to listen to AM radio while flying.

The pilot was likely under some pressure to land so the president of Poland could make the ceremony. He kept trying, and probably flew below the minimum allowable altitude for that approach without having the runway in sight. It's a very dangerous maneuver in a light airplane like mine that flies the final approach at between 80 and 100 knots. the TU-154 probably had a final approach speed in the range of 140-150 knots.

Even with the big clearways that are common at air carrier airports, the pilot only had to be a hundred feet too low or a few hundred yards either side of the runway to hit a tree. He might have been able to fly through if the belly just scraped some small branches at the top. If he hit the trunk, then the tree wins.

Two tries is the absolute maximum. Unfortunately, repeated tries do nothing to improve the weather conditions. They do increase the likelihood of a bad outcome.

Jack, the articles I read said the airport was little used, did not have a permanent air control staff, and did not even have ILS. They staffed it with a controller just for the landing of the Polish plane.

[jackellis]

I suppose Europe and Russia could be different but in the US, jet aircraft, including commercial flights, can and do land at airports without operating control towers, in good weather and bad. Pilots learn and use the same general procedures no matter how large or small their airplane is.

It appears from the information I've seen that the Polish flight crew broke a cardinal rule, which is to never descend below the published minimum approach altitude. Too bad, because this looks like an easily avoidable accident.