Finally

[germdoc]

Unemployment down, job losses almost gone.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/04/news...mber/index.htm

The direction of the graph is promising:



We're not out of the woods yet, but my uninformed opinion is that there's a lot of pent-up demand for stuff and people who really want to work, so when the hemorrhaging stops, the economy will start to heal itself pretty quickly. Also, there's been a lot of money thrown around the country (and the world for that matter), and guess what--soon businesses and local and state governments and individual people will be wanting to spend it.

Then we can worry about inflation.

[Uncle Cracker]

Nice to see more hopeful indicators... Still depressing to know that my location and industry will lag a year or so behind the mainstream recovery.

[natausch]

Not to doom and gloom, but...

Seasonal (Holiday jobs) does not equal real job growth.
Expect more fun from the Dubai fiasco


The real economic numbers coming out soon will be the initial holiday shopping, since Christmas accounts for something insane like 8% of our total economy.

[germdoc]

Not to doom and gloom, but...

Seasonal (Holiday jobs) does not equal real job growth.
Expect more fun from the Dubai fiasco.

I would normally agree with you re' seasonal jobs, but the slope of that graph is very consistent (i.e., there's not a lot of deviation) and headed in a positive direction. Economists and business writers have all kinds of pet theories to explain why things vary from month to month, but in the end business cycles follow a general pattern.

Re' Dubai--I have trouble understanding the significance of this to the US economy. Except maybe locally to Trane company, which apparently has had huge contracts for A/C units that allow them to build indoor ski slopes in the desert...

[Kristofor]

Also, there's been a lot of money thrown around the country (and the world for that matter), and guess what--soon businesses and local and state governments and individual people will be wanting to spend it.

They already want to, and are spending it. After knocking off a $4B state deficit this year, we're already $1.5B in the hole for next year and $5.5B in the hole for the following year when the stimulus/debt transfer goes away.

The rationale given by the state economist attributed this almost entirely to a large drop in income tax revenue. Naturally unemloyement was up (though below national levels), and hours were cut for many folks, but the average wage/sallary rate was also down significantly.

The studies that were conducted after the early 90's recession basically said that the workers impacted in that recession had not yet, and would NEVER return to the same standard of living relative to people who did not lose their jobs. They did get back to work, but often after having burned through savings/retirement funds, and when they returned to work it often was at a lower pay/benefit rate.

If that pattern holds this time, with the much more widespread unemployement, pay cuts, etc. I think it may be a pretty mediocre outlook overall...

[alpha]

I hope it is true; however, with statistical data I remember Mark Twain:

http://tinyurl.com/yk4363t

[annunaki]

Don't Count On It

There is a problem. Businesses just aren't creating jobs as they have in previous recoveries.That's because in previous economic recoveries the very businesses we rely on for new jobs weren't being threatened with huge tax increases. What sane small businessman is going to go on an expansion spree at a time when the political party in power is talking tax increases that could increase that businessman's federal tax burden by as much as 15 percentage points?

[master53yoda]

Unemployment down, job losses almost gone.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/04/news...mber/index.htm

The direction of the graph is promising:



We're not out of the woods yet, but my uninformed opinion is that there's a lot of pent-up demand for stuff and people who really want to work, so when the hemorrhaging stops, the economy will start to heal itself pretty quickly. Also, there's been a lot of money thrown around the country (and the world for that matter), and guess what--soon businesses and local and state governments and individual people will be wanting to spend it.

Then we can worry about inflation.

I have jumped in on this thought a few times. In studying the historical markets over the last century or so one of the things that is real common is that at the top of a bear trap as we are now at, the analysts all go bull and the group as a hole says "get in were on the way back up." this has happened at the beginning of the final drop in every recession. I am attaching a couple of charts with my projections based on Elliot wave Formations (this method has been dead on in projections both forward and backward since developed in the 40s) everything to date has transpired as these projections show. note also that a number of other indicators are either diverging as the MACD line and price line is now or not confiming the dows and golds new highs. The Elliot Wave International's advice is to turn all investments to the cash side as the market now will take a major drop. Bear in mind that the market leads the economy it does not respond or react in any major way to stimulus's etc.

http://trading-stocks.netfirms.com/e...e-analysis.htm this site gives a quick explanation of Elliot waves

http://www.elliottwave.com/ This site is the main site for the most information available.

Please bear in mind that the chart below are my personal analysis although they predominantly follow those given in the above site.

If these projections are correct then the final bottom will affect the world as much as the the crash of 1929 or more but if we manage our selves and go full hard money we will survive and do well in the future.

[bruce hylton]

The people who give us these charts and stats are the same people we blame for all things bad, are they not? Go to recovery.org for more. The government is now asking for a raise in taxes to help pay for their boondoggles.

[JR]

The people who give us these charts and stats are the same people we blame for all things bad, are they not?

Master53yoda developed these charts. Are you suggesting that he is responsible for all things bad?

JR

[master53yoda]

Master53yoda developed these charts. Are you suggesting that he is responsible for all things bad?

JR

I think (or Hope) he was referring to the jobs report. my charts are simply my market projections. You can see the projections for the current wave two at the beginnning of the wave. I generated them in Feb/09 when the MACD diverged from the fall from wave one.(also EWI advised in late Feb closing all shorts that were advised in June of 07, and entering long positions) I tend to be about one month in front of EWI advice when I start making my next wave projections. The total return on wave 2 for me was 87%, I missed one of the moves and rode out the 3-(3) to 3-(5) move which would have given me about a 120% return for this wave.

I am currently in a full short position with stops just above the max C/2 top just in case I'm all wrong.

PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT IT IS NOT EVER GOOD TO MAKE TRADING DECISIONS UNLESS YOU FULLY UNDERSTAND WHY YOU ARE MAKING THEM.