The Great Global Warming Swindle

[BigguyZ]

I haven't read the full article. I don't know about the site. But since it seems relevant to this conversation-

http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature...ticle10866.htm

[jackellis]

The people happiest to see us in denial are the energy companies (no offense, Jack)

Jeff, no offense taken. I work in the energy INDUSTRY but not always for energy COMPANIES. One thing I face almost every day is reconciling the conflict between what I regard as principled positions based on facts and partisan positions my clients may want to take in order to advance their business interests.

The "truth" about climate change is a bigger deal than most people realize. One aspect that is not being discussed very widely is the geopolitical implications. These go far beyond which countries are net producers of oil and which countries are net consumers. The implications of using food crops for fuel haven't been obvious but how about the potential for food riots http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/14/news...tune/index.htm like the ones that led to the French Revolution?

The other got driven home pretty hard at a small industry meeting I attended last week. Many "experts" are suggesting that renewable energy sources like wind could be used to produce electricity in place of fossil fuels, especially coal. It's not that simple, easy or cheap. Texas nearly went dark last week when an unexpected increase in temperature coincided with an unexpected drop in wind energy production. The grid operator asked large industrial companies (mostly refineries) to cut consumption until they could get conventional powerplants started to take up the slack. Batteries could help, but they are enormously expensive and none of the technologies that are currently available are economically viable under the current industry organization and at current electricity prices.

Next up was a presentation by an investment advisor for a Swiss bank who showed that carbon prices would have to reach about $50/ton before gas-fired electric generation would start to displace coal. That adds about 3 cents per kilowatthour to the price of electricity. But then she showed that natural gas supply in the US would have to increase by two thirds in order to provide fuel for all those gas-fired powerplants, which would drive the price of natural gas quite high and the price of coal low, which would require even higher carbon prices to make sure coal-fired plants cost more to run than gas-fired plants. She could not tell us where natural gas prices would ultimately settle but that's an intriguing question I hope I'll have an opportunity to investigate. Her presentation also showed that the number of nuclear plants that would be required to displace coal and their cost was astronomical - something like 850 billion dollars - and that's without considering that the entire nuclear fleet will likely reach the end if its life in the next 20-30 years.

The bottom line is that in the electric power sector alone, no one knows with any reasonable degree of certainty what the economic impacts of curbing carbon emissions are, and that still leaves other industries and transportation. Conservation will help mitigate the impact, and there will be lots of conservation if the price of electricity doubles or triples in order to meet carbon reduction mandates. But the economic implications of carbon reduction are substantial any way you look at it. If we're going to cause this huge economic dislocation in order to avoid a catastrophe, it seems to me we need more certainty about mankind's influence on the cause and mankind's ability to change the outcome.

P.S. It seems corn-based ethanol isn't going to be such a great idea after all: http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/27/maga...ion=2008022811

[sparkeyjames]

Over the past decade or so I have learned not to trust anything having to do with "global warming". For the following reasons. Who can measure the output of the sun with any degree of reliability and it's impact on the planets ecosystems? How does one measure the impact of pollution on a planetary scale? What about the rampant misinterpretation and warping of data to fit a a political agenda? Can the mass media be trusted to ignore the political warping of such data and get to the truth or will they continue to be the mouthpiece of a government out of control?